Recent satellite data has sent shockwaves through the space exploration community, revealing that the moon's deepest craters host far less ice than previously anticipated.

Ice Estimates Slashed!

Back in 2018, researchers at the University of Hawaii at Mānoa claimed that up to 30% of permanently shaded regions (PSRs) on the moon could be composed of surface-exposed water ice. However, new analyses from the same team have drastically revised that figure, now suggesting that the upper limit is closer to 20%. This significant reduction poses a serious challenge for future lunar colonists hoping to utilize local ice resources for water and fuel.

The Quest for Hidden Ice

Previous missions have highlighted the moon's darkest areas, especially its intriguing south pole. Shuai Li, an assistant researcher at the Hawaii Institute of Geophysics and Planetology, pioneered the discovery of actual ice in these shaded craters. This breakthrough was made possible by the ShadowCam, a highly sensitive imaging instrument aboard the Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter, launched in August 2022.

ShadowCam leverages faint sunlight reflected off the lunar surface to identify ice, as water ice is inherently more reflective than lunar rock. Initial assessments estimated ice content between 5% and a staggering 30%. However, graduate student Jordan Ando re-examined the imagery for a more accurate reading.

A Disappointing Turn of Events

Ando's fresh analysis revealed a sobering reality: the anticipated brightening effect from ice was largely nonexistent in the lunar craters. As a result, the team had to slash their previous estimates, confirming that less than 20% of these hidden areas contain ice—far below earlier hopes.

New Cosmic Ray Research Set to Illuminate Lunar Mysteries

While no missions aimed directly at evaluating ice reserves are currently planned, lunar base and colonization projects are rapidly developing. Researchers at UH Mānoa are proposing an innovative method using cosmic rays—ultra-high-energy particles that penetrate the lunar surface—to investigate ice deposits. Emily S. Costello, leading this research, believes cosmic rays could reveal buried layers of ice.

"These cosmic rays emit radar waves that can bounce back from ice and rock layers beneath the surface," Costello explained. Using advanced simulations, the team has modeled how these radar signals can uncover the moon's hidden resources.

Future Missions on the Horizon!

Plans are underway to transition this cosmic ray technique from theoretical research to practical application. A specialized radar instrument is being developed by HIGP, with tests scheduled for 2026. If successful, researchers will look for opportunities to transport this instrument to the lunar surface, potentially uncovering buried ice deposits for the first time.

A New Era for Hawaiian Space Exploration