Alberta's Political Landscape on the Rise

Recent polls reveal that Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is experiencing a significant surge in popularity, fueled by growing tensions between Alberta and Ottawa. This intriguing trend comes from a study conducted by Janet Brown, a prominent pollster in Calgary.

Smith vs. Nenshi: A Clear Edge

The province-wide survey conducted this month shows Smith holding a double-digit lead over her primary rival, NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi. While 40% of Albertans rated Smith highly, scoring between 7 and 10 on a satisfaction scale, only 27% felt the same about Nenshi.

Ottawa's Role in Smith's Popularity Surge

According to Brown, the perceived effectiveness of Smith in addressing Alberta's concerns with Ottawa plays a critical role in her rising popularity. She noted, "The relationship with Ottawa is the most significant factor influencing Smith’s support numbers right now."

Internal Challenges Yet to Deter Support

Despite facing local challenges, including expulsions from her caucus and a lingering health contracts scandal, Smith’s appeal seems largely unaffected. Brown indicated these issues are more of an "inside baseball" concern for the electorate.

The Ambivalent Albertans

Interestingly, Smith's support appears strongest among the middle third of Albertans—those who identify as Canadian yet feel their province is being unfairly treated by the federal government. Brown commented, "They don’t want to separate, but they also reject the status quo... the NDP hasn’t effectively addressed this demographic."

Divided Identity Among Albertans

In terms of identity, Albertans are evenly split. A third feel most connected to Alberta, another third identify more with Canada, and the final third feel an equal attachment to both.

Smith's Direct Appeal to Citizens

In a recent livestreamed address, Smith resonated with this ambivalent group, acknowledging their frustrations while insisting there remains a viable path for Alberta to thrive within Canada.

Nenshi and the Opposition

In stark contrast, Nenshi is firmly entrenched in his federalist stance, chastising Smith for allegedly playing separatist games. His party has even established a website to rally opposition against her.

Public Sentiment Towards National Leaders

Furthermore, Brown noted that Albertans are currently lending Prime Minister Mark Carney the "benefit of the doubt," as they hope for a harmonious resolution that could enhance national unity between Alberta and Ottawa.