A recent report from Public Health Ontario reveals alarming trends in respiratory illnesses, indicating an anticipated rise in influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) cases across the province in the coming days. As the year heads to its closing months, the focus is shifting from COVID-19, whose transmission is showing a decline.

Flu Activity Expected to Rise

The Integrated Respiratory Virus Risk Indicators report, released on November 1, highlights that flu activity is projected to rise slightly as we approach the week of November 9. Current data shows a low influenza positivity rate of just 0.6 percent as recorded during the week of October 20. However, experts warn this could change rapidly.

RSV's Growing Impact

Notably, RSV is showing a higher positivity rate of 1.4 percent during the same timeframe. According to the report, this virus is expected to affect the population more significantly than influenza, soaring at a steeper rate as we transition into mid-November.

COVID-19 Stabilization

Meanwhile, the situation regarding COVID-19 appears to be stabilizing, with a “moderate” positivity rate of 15.9 percent, which is expected to see further decreases in the near term. Health officials advise continued vigilance, as variants of the virus remain a concern amidst the easing numbers.

Risks of Respiratory Illnesses

Importantly, the report outlines the ongoing risks associated with these respiratory illnesses, indicating a medium risk of severe illness—i.e., hospitalizations—for both pediatric and adult populations. However, a concerning uptick in risk for children is flagged as we approach the second week of November, while adult hospitalizations remain stable.

Caution for Vulnerable Groups

Particular caution is advised for vulnerable groups: individuals over 60 years old, infants under six months, and children under 24 months are deemed most at risk for severe complications from RSV.

Proactive Immunization Efforts

In a proactive response, the Ontario provincial government has broadened its RSV immunization program, now covering all infants born in 2024, expanding beyond the previous scope that focused on high-risk infants. Vaccination opportunities extend to older adults in long-term care homes and pregnant women, mirroring similar free vaccination programs for flu and COVID-19, available at local pharmacies and health units.

Staying Informed and Vaccinated

As winter looms, Ontarians are urged to stay informed, get vaccinated, and remain cautious as we brace for an uptick in respiratory illnesses while COVID-19 appears to recede. Are you prepared for the impending flu season?