NASA Sounds Alarm on SpaceX's Starship Timeline

In a shocking revelation, NASA's Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP) has raised serious concerns about the readiness of SpaceX's Starship for the upcoming Artemis III mission, slated for a lunar landing in 2027. Experts fear that the ambitious Human Landing System (HLS) may not be ready in time, throwing a wrench in NASA's plan to return astronauts to the Moon.

A Moon Landing Years in the Making

The Artemis III mission represents a historic effort to place astronaut boots back on the lunar surface. Initially targeted for a 2024 launch, the timeline has already shifted to 2027, compounded by delays in getting SpaceX's Starship past its fiery test phases. This critical rocket is intended to ferry astronauts from a lunar orbit down to the Moon's surface, a pivotal part of the mission.

Setbacks and Future Tests

The first manned test flight of NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS), part of the Artemis II mission, won’t launch until 2026. If that goes smoothly, 2027 will be the target for Artemis III. However, any further slips in getting the Starship ready would not only embarrass SpaceX but also dim U.S. aspirations of returning to the Moon before China’s anticipated crewed lunar landing.

A Daring Future? 2032 on the Horizon?

Recent reports indicate that SpaceX may not have a fully functional Starship until as late as 2032. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk dismissed these claims as irrelevant, stating, "It's not worth lining a parrot cage with NY Times, let alone reading it." Yet, ASAP’s apprehensions are hard to ignore.

Challenges Ahead: The Technical Hurdles

While ASAP applauds SpaceX for its advancements, the path to launching astronauts on the HLS remains fraught with challenges. After one more test flight of Starship Version 2, SpaceX will embark on Version 3 testing, which needs to demonstrate reliability before fuel depots in Earth orbit can be established.

The HLS Variant: A Massive Undertaking

Starship’s HLS variant stands tall at approximately 50 to 55 meters, dwarfing the Apollo Lunar Module, which was only about 7 meters tall. This astonishing height brings complications; for instance, the Apollo 15 Lunar Module landed at a tilt of 11 degrees. Hence, stabilizing a much taller vehicle in similar conditions will be a formidable challenge.

The Need for Ground Preparation

A space agency insider humorously suggested that a flat surface would be essential, perhaps necessitating a rover the size of a JCB to prepare the landing zone. However, such technology is not in SpaceX’s current plans.

Lunar Suit Setback: A Race Against Time

Compounding these issues are the lunar spacesuits being developed by Axiom Space, which have their own aggressive timelines. ASAP has warned that any delays in SpaceX's preparations could push the Artemis III lunar landing back, even if NASA’s SLS is finally ready on time.

Conclusion: A Race to the Moon

As NASA's preparations for a lunar return continue, the clock is ticking, and uncertainty looms large. Will SpaceX’s Starship make the cut for 2027, or will history repeat itself with missed deadlines? Only time will tell.