In a dramatic turn of events following a tense meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy found himself scrambling to secure military support just as the U.S. decided to pause aid and restrict intelligence-sharing with Kyiv. This precarious situation has left Ukraine feeling cornered, prompting Zelenskyy to offer strategic access to its abundant natural resources in a bid to strike a deal with Trump, despite the apparent lack of a solid security guarantee.

But are Zelenskyy's attempts merely a leap of faith into murky waters? Trump's history of breaking agreements raises a crucial question: Can Ukraine afford to engage with a leader known for his unpredictable negotiations? As Trump ominously pointed out, “You don’t have the cards.” It’s clear Ukraine is at a disadvantage in this prolonged conflict with Russia, yet surrendering its sovereignty, land, and wealth is not an option—nor is it the only strategy available.

If the situation deteriorates further, there's a possibility that Ukrainian fighters might shift from conventional warfare to insurgency tactics. This may seem alarming, but history teaches us that insurgencies can prove to be a challenging conundrum for invading forces.

Insurgency: An Effective Strategy Against Invaders

Drawing from two decades of studying asymmetric warfare, it is evident that insurgencies can drastically change the dynamics of power. While the stronger party may seem to dominate initially, insurgents find ways to exploit their existing knowledge and adapt their tactics to wear down their foes—both economically and militarily.

Should negotiations fail entirely, Ukraine could resort to forming decentralized militia units, disguising themselves within civilian populations while waiting for the opportune moment to strike back. This approach might initially project the false impression of defeat to Russian forces, allowing them to underestimate the resolve and capabilities of the Ukrainian resistance.

The Long Game: Patience Is Key

Insurgents understand the value of time. Initial phases of operation involve meticulous reconnaissance and intelligence gathering. By lying low and infiltrating enemy ranks, these fighters can learn crucial details about their enemy's operations, ultimately orchestrating more potent and precise strikes when the moment is right.

With past conflicts illustrating the more costly nature of conventional counterinsurgency efforts—often requiring billions of dollars and substantial military resources—the longer an invader remains entangled in a conflict without resolution, the more they risk financial exhaustion. The fact remains that effective insurgents can continue their fight indefinitely, leveraging their understanding of local terrains and civilian support to their advantage.

Geographical Benefits: A Natural Fortress

Ukraine's expansive rural landscape provides a unique strategic advantage that could further aid an insurgency. Unlike urban settings that offer limited cover, the open plains, forests, and mountainous regions allow for guerrilla tactics that would hinder any invading military's attempts to establish control. Moreover, attacks on civilian targets generally lead to increased local resentment and recruitment, fueling the insurgency further.

As Russia continues its campaign in Ukraine, the likelihood of civilian casualties could inadvertently widen the insurgent base, creating a broader resistance against occupiers. Putin’s narrative may paint Ukrainian fighters as "terrorists," but should the situation escalate, Russia may find itself ensnared in a far-reaching conflict that destabilizes not just Ukraine but Europe as a whole.

A Gamble for Europe’s Future

This potential for an insurgency should act as a wake-up call for both Trump and Putin. Fair negotiations with Zelenskyy could avoid the disastrous implications of further conflict. Should the situation devolve into widespread insurgency, the consequences would echo throughout Europe for generations, fundamentally reshaping the continent's geopolitical landscape.

Ukraine's resilience and ability to adapt could ultimately evolve into a formidable challenge for any aggressor—and with that, the future of European stability hangs in the balance.