In a surprising examination of the hypothetical scenario involving a U.S. invasion of Canada, political experts and military historians are issuing stark warnings about the potential fallout. The idea of U.S. President Donald Trump sending troops north is often dismissed as implausible, but the implications of such an action are deeply concerning.

Aisha Ahmad, a political science professor from the University of Toronto and an expert on insurgencies, argues that while a conventional military victory by the U.S. might come quickly due to the imbalance of power, it would not be the end of the conflict. “An invasion would inevitably lead to violent local resistance. It’s impossible to annex Canada without violence; everyday citizens would transform into insurgents when forced to protect their loved ones,” she explained in her recent essay featured in The Conversation.

She points to the probability of Canadians engaging in gradual acts of civil disobedience that would escalate into sabotage and armed resistance. Ahmad emphasizes that if even a mere 1% of Canada's population—estimated at 400,000 people—decided to join the fight against American forces, it would create a sizable challenge for the vastly stronger U.S. military.

Contrary to Ahmad's more dire predictions, Howard Coombs, director of the Queen's Centre for International and Defence Policy, suggests a U.S. invasion might not be executed with heavy-handed violence. He believes the U.S. military would aim to minimize destruction to avoid galvanizing the Canadian populace against them. “A cooperative or neutral population is crucial for stability,” said Coombs, who has firsthand experience working with U.S. military strategies.

Nonetheless, Ahmad argues that Canada's potential allies, including Russia and China, could see an opportunity to exploit the conflict for their benefit, possibly providing covert aid to Canadian insurgents. “Past conflict scenarios show that unconventional warfare can significantly weaken a more powerful opponent, especially over decades,” she stated.

Military historian Eliot Cohen, however, views the entire notion of an American invasion as absurd. He suggests that Trump’s threats are more bluster than a genuine policy intent. Reflecting on history, Cohen highlighted previous failed U.S. military campaigns in Canada, including the disastrous attempts during the War of 1812, which serve as a testament to the difficulties of invading a nation not welcoming of such aggression.

With over 40 million Canadians who value their national identity, Cohen stresses that any potential insurgency would be fueled by a strong sense of resistance—not only from Canadian citizens but fueled by international sympathy and support.

While the prospect of a U.S. military invasion across the border may appear far-fetched, experts stress that pondering the circumstances and consequences of such actions urges us to consider the broader implications of international relations, national sovereignty, and the resilient spirit of the Canadian people.

As tensions in global politics continue to evolve, this conversation serves as a critical reminder that military might is trumped by the will of the people—and any invasion would indeed encounter a fierce, unyielding resistance.