Key Insights

Currently, Kamala Harris holds a slim lead over Trump with a margin of just 2 points in the Real Clear Politics national polling average. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight's aggregate gives Harris a slightly broader edge of 2.7 points.

Voter Demographics

Harris is drawing substantial support from younger voters, non-white voters, and women, groups that previously showed uncertainty in their backing of Joe Biden before his withdrawal from the race. According to the latest New York Times survey, an impressive 84% of Black voters now support Harris, surpassing the level of backing Biden had before his exit.

The Biden Factor

Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race on July 21 marked a significant pivot in the electoral landscape. After initially claiming he would continue despite a challenging debate performance on June 27, he ultimately endorsed Harris, who quickly announced her candidacy and secured the nomination with overwhelming delegate support barely three weeks later.

Prior to Biden's exit, polls indicated that Trump was poised to beat him in several critical battlegrounds, although Biden successfully won six out of seven swing states during the 2020 election—only losing North Carolina.

What Lies Ahead

As the 2024 election nears, both candidates are ramping up their efforts to sway undecided voters. With Trump now gaining traction in historically Democratic areas, the dynamics of the race are evolving rapidly. Voter turnout and the engagement of key demographics will be critical in determining the outcome as Americans prepare to head to the polls.

As the stakes grow higher, it remains to be seen how these shifting trends will influence the final electoral map. Stay tuned for the latest updates on this unfolding political drama that could change the course of history!