Trump's Reelection and Its Implications for Israel

In a swift response to Donald Trump's recent reelection, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hailed it as 'the greatest comeback in history.' His coalition partners, Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, celebrated online even before the election results were formally announced.

Netanyahu wasted no time and was one of the first leaders to congratulate Trump. Reports indicate their conversation was warm, focusing on mutual interests in Israel's security and the looming Iranian threat. This comes at a pivotal moment, as Netanyahu just fired his defense minister, Yoav Gallant, who held connections with the Biden administration, a move many are interpreting as a signal of the changing tides in Israeli politics following Trump's victory.

Public Sentiment in Israel

An overwhelming 67% of Israelis expressed satisfaction with Trump's return in a recent poll, and many on the streets echoed this sentiment. 'If he can keep even half of his promises, it will be monumental for both Israel and America,' stated Benaya Koller, a Jerusalem resident.

However, not all Israeli observers view this development positively. Critics argue that Netanyahu's far-right government has benefitted immensely from Trump’s leadership, with Yehuda Shaul from the think tank Ofek likening Trump’s presidency to an American lottery win for Smotrich and Ben-Gvir.

Trump's Record on Israeli Relations

Trump's first term was marked by a series of bold moves favoring Israel—including the recognition of Jerusalem as its capital and the contentious transfer of the US embassy from Tel Aviv. Additionally, he acknowledged Israel's claims over the Golan Heights and played a pivotal role in establishing the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and several Arab nations, but largely sidelined the Palestinian issue.

Speculations for Trump's Second Term

As Trump prepares for a potential second term, speculation abounds regarding his intentions. He may pursue further normalization of relations, particularly with Saudi Arabia, and seek to revitalize the contentious 'Deal of the Century,' which involved aggressive policies regarding settlement expansion in the West Bank.

Complex Relationship with Netanyahu

However, the dynamics between Trump and Netanyahu have fluctuated. Tensions surfaced when Trump appeared displeased with Netanyahu's congratulatory message to Joe Biden after the 2020 election. Most recently, following the Hamas-led attacks on October 7, 2023, Trump criticized Netanyahu for his administration's preparedness, suggesting that under his leadership, such events may not have transpired.

Experts suggest that Netanyahu's relationship with Trump is fraught with complexities. Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli diplomat, stated that Netanyahu harbors both reliance on and fear of Trump, fearing unpredictable repercussions that could differ dramatically from the more stable yet critical Biden administration.

Broader Implications for the Middle East

As the Middle East remains volatile, the incoming administration cannot afford to overlook pressing issues in the region. Trump has hinted at wanting to bring swift conclusions to conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon but has not elaborated on distinct strategies that would differ from current policies. Analysts point out that Trump’s administration previously granted significant leeway for Israeli government actions without insisting on progress towards a two-state solution.

The current political atmosphere has led to concerns about increased actions in the Israeli-occupied territories, with some now fearing that Trump's re-election will signal a green light for further annexations. Critics, including those from the organization Breaking the Silence, warn that this could lead to significant escalations and an end to any hopes for a peaceful resolution with the Palestinians.

The Humanitarian Situation in Gaza

The atmosphere among Israeli settlers is jubilant, with reports indicating organized plans to apply Israeli sovereignty over disputed territories. If realized, these actions would jeopardize the prospect of a two-state solution, raising alarms among Palestinian communities.

In the shadow of these political maneuvers, the humanitarian situation in Gaza worsens, with many displaced and living under dire conditions. Individuals like 22-year-old Shadi Asaad, who lives in a tent in Khan Younis, express despair over the ongoing conflict and skepticism about the impact of a new US administration. His emotions reflect the broader sentiment across Gaza—a yearning for peace and resolution amidst a protracted and painful struggle.

Conclusion

As the world watches, Trump's second term holds significant implications not just for Israel but for the broader geopolitical landscape of the Middle East and the ongoing crisis affecting countless lives.