"A lot more people are going to die," was a haunting warning sounded back in March by activists backing a legal challenge for a Toronto drug injection site.

They argued that new Ontario laws mandating the closure of injection sites within 200 meters of schools and daycare facilities violated the Charter rights of users. The threat of increased overdose deaths loomed large.

Expert witnesses from the MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions claimed that shutting down half of the city's ten injection sites would lead to a staggering rise in overdose fatalities.

Fred Fischer, a lawyer for Toronto's Board of Health, testified about the dire consequences of reducing harm reduction services during the ongoing opioid crisis, stressing that such cuts would result in more overdoses and deaths.

A lawyer for another intervention group went even further, revealing that a remaining Toronto injection site had begun hiring grief counselors, anticipating a surge in overdose deaths following the closures.

Now, as we find ourselves in June, the burning question emerges: How many additional lives have been lost due to these closures?

Surprising data from Toronto Paramedic Services and Public Health reveals the answer: none. Astonishingly, overdose incidents in April—just after the site closures—showed a marked decline.

Toronto reported 13 fatal overdose calls in April, one fewer than the previous month when the sites were still operational. This statistic is less than half of the fatal overdoses recorded in April of the previous year and well below the monthly average for all of 2024 (19).

To add context, the average monthly number of fatalities during the Covid-19 emergency period from April 2020 to May 2023 was 25, making April's 13 a notable low.

Meanwhile, the number of non-fatal overdose calls in April was 161, the fewest recorded this year and significantly lower than April 2024's 359.

Remarkably, during the third week of April, there were zero fatal overdose calls—a rarity in Toronto for months.

These statistics challenge the narrative pushed by activists that closing injection sites would lead to a public health crisis, prompting us to reconsider the assumptions behind harm reduction strategies.