Introduction

In a surprising turn of events, Canada’s temporary resident population has dipped for the first time in three years. This decline comes on the heels of significant policy changes enacted by the Canadian government aimed at curtailing immigration levels.

Recent Data

According to recent data from Statistics Canada, as of January 1, 2025, there were approximately 30,000 fewer non-permanent residents compared to October 1, 2024. This downward shift brought the total number of non-permanent residents to just over three million, representing 7.3% of the total population—down from 7.4% in the previous quarter.

Overall Population Growth

This reduction is indicative of a broader slowdown in Canada’s overall population growth, which recently rose by just 0.2%, reaching about 41.5 million. This marks the slowest growth rate since late 2020, when COVID-19 border restrictions were in full force. While Canada’s population continues to increase, the growth pace has certainly changed from the more robust rates seen in 2022 and 2023, where it grew at 2.5% and 3.1%, respectively—largely fueled by an influx of immigrants.

Surge in Temporary Residents

In fact, Canada witnessed a substantial surge in its temporary resident population over the past five years, primarily attributed to the rising numbers of international students, temporary foreign workers, and asylum seekers. However, last year’s federal reforms aimed at regulating this growth included capping the admissions of international students and temporary foreign workers, alongside limiting work permits for their spouses and dependents.

Government Targets and Economic Predictions

The government has set an ambitious target to reduce the share of non-permanent residents to 5% of the population by the end of 2026. Yet, insights from economist Mikal Skuterud of the University of Waterloo suggest that achieving this goal seems increasingly unrealistic. To meet the target, a staggering 32% reduction in temporary residents would be necessary over the next two years.

"Achieving the 5% threshold by January 1, 2027, is highly questionable," warned Skuterud. He further noted that for Canada to meet this goal, the total population would need to decline by 0.4%, a scenario seen as untenable given the current growth trends. Furthermore, while measures have been taken to cap new foreign entrants, the government is hopeful that existing temporary residents will leave voluntarily as their visas expire. However, with over 200,000 post-graduate work permit holders potentially facing expiration by the end of 2025, concerns about a gradual increase in undocumented residents loom large.

Permanent Residency Statistics

On the permanent residency front, Statistics Canada reported that 483,591 immigrants were granted permanent resident status in 2024—the highest figure since 1972. Yet, the government has reduced its targets for permanent residency intake by 20% over the next three years.

Population Distribution and Economic Impact

In terms of population distribution, Alberta experienced the most robust growth, while provinces like Ontario and British Columbia—typically home to larger numbers of international students—saw a deceleration in population growth.

As a result of this slowdown, consumers may begin to feel the economic impacts, with expectations of reduced spending and a loosening rental market. Robert Kavcic, a senior economist at the Bank of Montreal, remarked on the early signs of these trends, noting that there remains potential for further normalization in the future.

Conclusion

As these changes unfold, the repercussions on Canada’s economy and societal fabric are bound to be closely monitored. The journey ahead promises to be challenging for policymakers and residents alike. Will Ottawa’s ambitious goals come to fruition, or will Canada have to rethink its approach to immigration? Only time will tell, but the implications of these changes will resonate for years to come.