Introduction

In a pivotal moment for Sudan, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have claimed control over the presidential palace in Khartoum, marking a significant turn in their two-year battle against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The palace, an iconic symbol of power and governance, is seen as crucial for the military-led government's narrative as the rightful rulers combating what they label a 'terrorist militia.'

Military Offensive and Territorial Control

The recent military offensive has seen the SAF regaining substantial territory within the capital, including vital government buildings and strategic locations near their General Headquarters. Yet, despite these advances, the war is far from over; the RSF continues to maintain a presence in various parts of Khartoum, and fierce fighting is anticipated as the SAF seeks to push them further out.

Leadership and Power Dynamics

General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, commonly referred to as Hemedti, leads the RSF, which currently holds significant sway over the Darfur region and parts of southern Sudan. Conversely, the SAF, under the leadership of General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, dominates eastern and northern Sudan. The competing factions previously allied in a coup, but a power struggle erupted into civil war in April 2023, destabilizing the nation.

Potential Outcomes of SAF Control

Should the SAF successfully consolidate its control over Khartoum, it could reshape the conflict's trajectory, potentially enabling them to challenge RSF strongholds, particularly in El Fasher, which has been under prolonged siege. However, experts warn of a possible slide toward a de facto partition of Sudan, with entrenched territorial divides becoming the new norm for both warring parties.

Responses from the RSF

In a bid to maintain its relevance, the RSF is actively working to establish a parallel government in areas under its control, involving allied factions in drafting a political framework in Nairobi. This maneuver aims to underscore their resilience in the conflict, despite recent military setbacks.

Humanitarian Crisis

The ramifications of this conflict have been devastating for the civilian population of Sudan. The United Nations has termed the crisis the world's worst humanitarian disaster, with upwards of 12 million people displaced and millions facing acute food shortages. Khartoum is on the brink of famine, exacerbated by looting and strict aid restrictions imposed by the government. The SAF's takeover of the city could significantly alter the humanitarian landscape, yet immediate improvements may be elusive.

Allegations of War Crimes

Both the SAF and the RSF have been accused of weaponizing humanitarian aid as a tactic of war, with increasing reports of human rights violations emerging from the conflict. Though both sides face serious allegations of war crimes, the RSF has attracted particular scrutiny for horrific acts including mass rape and genocide.

Prospects for Peace

As the SAF celebrates its latest military victory, it remains crucial to recognize that neither faction holds the ability to govern a unified Sudan at this stage, according to a recent report from the International Crisis Group. Despite claiming the presidential palace, both parties have declared their intent to continue fighting, with peace negotiations currently stalled. The outlook remains grim, as Sudan grapples not just with a war, but with the profound humanitarian crisis it has engendered.