Bitcoin is making waves again, as leverage surges alongside Taker Buy/Sell Ratios and Open Interest. Could we be on the brink of another breathtaking 20% correction like we saw in April?

As Bitcoin (BTC) culminates Q2, it’s showcasing resilience—climbing 7% this week and achieving a remarkable 30% gain for the quarter. Despite the shadows of macroeconomic challenges, including April’s sharp correction and high tensions in the Middle East, BTC appears to be riding the storm. But dig a little deeper, and the metrics tell a different story.

CryptoQuant’s Spot vs. Derivative Volume Ratio has taken a nosedive to a harrowing 0.05 by the end of May, a level unheard of since pre-election times. While there’s been a slight bounce back, the data from AMBCrypto suggests that BTC’s 7% weekly gain is not as clear-cut as it may seem.

Get Ready for a Wild Week Ahead!

Kicking off June at $104,785, Bitcoin is bracing to finish the month with a modest 2.89% increase—well below May’s staggering 10.99% rally. The recent slowdown can be attributed to fears and uncertainties stemming from ongoing global conflicts, which are impacting upward momentum. All eyes are now on significant U.S. economic reports that could shift the market sentiment.

Upcoming releases include Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s crucial speech, alongside vital data on non-farm payrolls, unemployment rates, and manufacturing activity. With just 30 days until the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) next meeting—where potential rate cuts are on the table—this week’s reports will be pivotal.

Market sentiment is leaning dovish, underscored by a significant 7.7% drop in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield this week. However, caution looms, as Polymarket indicates an 82% probability against a rate cut, given stubborn inflation and renewed tariff threats.

A Soft Macro Print Could Spark a Bitcoin Breakout!

All eyes are on the job and manufacturing numbers. If they underperform, we could witness Bitcoin capturing some risk-on momentum, potentially breaking the $110K threshold.

Leverage Builds as Traders Bet on Upside!

Bitcoin whales are diving in with aggressive long positions. Currently, Deribit’s Taker Buy/Sell Ratio has skyrocketed to 12.5, showcasing decisive bullish sentiment among traders. Open Interest has climbed by 1.63% to an impressive $72 billion, confirming that leverage is rapidly building again.

Despite this surge, the market isn't overheated just yet. Technical indicators are holding steady, and there’s no sign of euphoric sentiment just yet. Interestingly, Bitcoin’s spot vs. derivatives volume ratio has edged up to 0.07—indicating that this rally is still driven by speculation rather than organic demand.

As we gear up for crucial macro reports in July, alongside the re-emergence of Trump’s high-stakes tariffs, the current market climate bears a striking resemblance to the early April phenomenon. Could Bitcoin be staring down another steep correction exceeding 20%?

This week’s data releases will be critical. If the figures come in below expectations and leverage remains elevated, prepare for a tumultuous ride!