A Looming Threat from Space

Asteroid 2024 YR4, which caused a stir last year with fears of colliding with Earth in 2032, has since been cleared of that risk. However, it still poses a 4% chance of crashing into the Moon. While those odds seem low, the consequences of such an impact could be catastrophic.

The Risks of a Lunar Impact

If 2024 YR4 were to strike the Moon, it could eject a massive amount of debris into low-Earth orbit. This debris might not only endanger satellites but also pose a risk to astronauts aboard the International Space Station. Clearly, preparedness is key.

NASA’s Bold Solutions

Researchers from NASA and other U.S. institutions have put forth several strategies to keep 2024 YR4 at bay. Their recent study, submitted for peer review, suggests that the most effective way to deal with this asteroid might actually be to destroy it before it hits.

Why Deflection Might Not Work

While deflecting the asteroid is the more conventional approach, there's a high risk involved. If 2024 YR4 is detonated, it could splinter into unpredictable fragments, turning one manageable threat into many dangerous ones. Moreover, perfect execution of a deflection strategy is challenging, especially with limited data about the asteroid's characteristics.

Understanding the Challenge

To accurately deflect 2024 YR4, scientists must know its mass and density, but they currently lack precise information. The James Webb Space Telescope has estimated its diameter as approximately 197 feet (60 meters), but the hefty range of possible mass—from 74 million pounds (33 million kilograms) to over 2 billion pounds (930 million kilograms)—makes calculation exceedingly complex. Miscalculating could risk redirecting it towards Earth itself!

Destruction: A Viable Option?

Given these hurdles, it seems that destruction may be the safest approach. One method is a kinetic disruption mission, akin to NASA's successful DART mission but aimed at shattering the asteroid instead of adjusting its course. This option is feasible, with a potential launch window between April 2030 and April 2032.

Another, more drastic, option involves using nuclear technology to obliterate the asteroid. This radical proposal aims to detonate a device on or near 2024 YR4, though it has never been tested before.

Time is on Our Side... For Now

With seven years left before 2024 YR4's close approach, there’s a good chance it will pass by harmlessly. However, this asteroid presents scientists with a rare opportunity to refine and test impact prevention strategies that could one day protect Earth and its celestial neighbor.