Finance

Are Bitcoin Bulls Losing Ground? Key Signals You Need to Know!

2025-07-06

Author: Amelia

Bitcoin's MVRV Ratio: A Bullish Indicator?

Bitcoin is holding its ground above the crucial 365-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on its MVRV Ratio—an important mid-cycle indicator. This rebound, observed just twelve days ago, could signal a continuation of the bullish trend, provided it maintains its support level.

Market Sentiment: Profits or Losses?

Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) hovers around the impressive $108K mark, signaling long-term confidence if the 'MVRV > SMA365' criteria is fulfilled. But on-chain activity is key; mere price appreciation isn’t enough to sustain upward momentum. Investors are grappling with whether to take profits or position for potential gains.

Profit-Taking or Panic?

The Net Realized Profit/Loss (NRPL) metric has risen by 2.27%, translating to $293 million in net profits for participants. This suggests a moderate round of profit-taking without igniting any sell-off panic. In mid-cycle markets like this, such behavior is common as traders secure gains while preserving the overall uptrend.

A Drop in Activity: Concern or Opportunity?

However, Bitcoin bulls face a tricky situation. The Transaction Count has dipped to 85.9K, with Network Growth sinking to 65.8K—levels we haven't seen in a while, according to Santiment data. While these statistics signal fewer new participants and reduced on-chain engagement, they could also indicate that speculative hype has subsided. Bulls might view this as a reset rather than a breakdown.

Social Sentiment: A Cause for Caution?

Interestingly, Bitcoin's Social Dominance has surged to 34.92%, marking this year's peak in 2025. Increased attention could generate market activity, but beware: such spikes have often foreshadowed local tops, particularly when not backed by solid on-chain support. More buzz means more volatility.

Key Technical Indicators: What’s Next?

Right now, BTC is firmly positioned above its 9-day and 21-day EMAs, and its Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 55, suggesting a mild bullish trend. This setup indicates a healthy price structure with EMAs acting as dynamic support. For BTC to attract more buyers, it needs to breach the $110K threshold and push the RSI past 60. Until then, sideways movement seems likely.

The Outlook: Bullish but Vulnerable?

Despite sluggish on-chain activity, Bitcoin's essential structural signals remain robust. Metrics like the MVRV Ratio and modest NRPL gains imply that bulls are still holding their ground. Yet, caution is warranted as the declining Transaction Count and rising Social Dominance indicate potential fragility. Bitcoin remains in a bullish territory but not without vulnerabilities. Should trading volume pick up and on-chain participation revive, another bullish leg might follow. For now, patience and prudent caution are key!